The Eurasian Economic Zone: Ukraine’s Saving Grace

The Eurasian Economic Zone: Ukraine’s Saving Grace

I’ve resolved to begin publishing oped’s in relation to Foreign Affairs that are of national security importance to the United States of America and global stability. This essay is one in a series of attempts to begin to get the message through to NATO that there is an alternative to the war in Ukraine — a peaceful solution to lasting peace in Europe that I do not currently see anyone else presenting publicly.

I’ve had the notion that a Eurasian Economic Zone would be the one and only solution in the Eastern European theater since the initial full scale invasion of Ukraine by its neighbor Russia initially known as a special military operation. I recently discovered an article posted in Financial Times and The Kyiv Post that seems links to an official Russian Federation document titled and both articles gravely missed the forest for the trees that could be a major bargaining chip in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict:

Strategic Session: Eurasian Integration in a Multipolar World. Coordination Center of the Government of the Russian Federation, 26 Apr. 2024. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VdRTDwqasBjzHZkFuIf4Ql1k2OBYUe2Z/view?usp=sharing

Стратегическая сессия: Евразийская интеграция в многополярном мире. Координационный центр Правительства Российской Федерации, 26 апр. 2024 г. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VdRTDwqasBjzHZkFuIf4Ql1k2OBYUe2Z/view?usp=sharing

Here’s a English translation summary:

  • Objectives: The session aims to analyze Eurasian integration, assess the developing multipolar world, discuss aligning strategic planning documents, and develop proposals for linking Eurasian integration with trade cooperation with Global South countries.
  • Context: It operates within the framework of Russia’s Foreign Economic Activity Strategy until 2030 and President Putin’s directives. It also aligns with the Declaration on the Further Development of Economic Processes within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) until 2030 and 2045 (“Eurasian Economic Path”).
  • Integration Focus: The document defines integration as developing deep ties between states through coordinated policies. Goals include broader access to resources, forming a competitive market, using economies of scale, and strengthening international positions. Stages of integration are outlined, from free trade zones to interstate unions.
  • Macroregions: It identifies and compares various macroregions (EAEU, China, USMCA, EU) in terms of population, resources, and economic factors. Special attention is given to Central Asia’s growing importance and the risks associated with it.
  • Risks and Opportunities: The document discusses risks like Central Asia potentially drifting away from Russia and towards other influences. It also explores opportunities for integration, including economic benefits, supply chain connections, and infrastructure development.
  • Integration Models: It touches on different integration models, including the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Union State of Russia and Belarus, and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), highlighting their current state and future directions.
  • EAEU Focus: The document provides a detailed overview of the EAEU, including challenges (e.g., exemptions, trade barriers), opportunities (e.g., common markets, digital space), and key performance indicators for 2030.
  • Global South Connectivity: It emphasizes the importance of connecting Northern Eurasia with the Global South through free trade zones and transport corridors.
  • OECD Influence: The document includes a detailed list of committees and working groups within the OECD, possibly indicating areas of potential cooperation or areas of study for the Russian Federation.
  • Proposed Solutions: The document suggests various protocol solutions for ministries, including developing action plans, proposals for free trade agreements, and initiatives in areas like energy security, transport, and culture.

In essence, the document outlines Russia’s strategic approach to Eurasian integration in the context of a changing global landscape, focusing on economic cooperation, regional connectivity, and addressing potential challenges.

Why is this seemingly innocuous Russian Federation document so important and why should we even care about it? Because everyone is arming themselves as if we’re preparing for total war in Europe and this absolutely terrifies me and should any other person that remembers even a shred of World War history or any other full scale conflict. BBC recently published an article titled “Germany decides to leave history in the past and prepare for war”. Ukraine recently accepted a ceasefire but it’s brittle as Al Jazeera reports today Russia stalls ceasefire talks as it intensifies attacks on Ukraineand other outlets reports are all over the place.

Russia’s 4 key bullet points for a peace in Ukraine are as follows:

  • Neutral Status for Ukraine: Russia has consistently demanded that Ukraine become a neutral state, meaning it would be barred from joining military alliances such as NATO. This has been a long-standing security concern for Russia.
  • Territorial Concessions: Russia has sought international recognition of its annexation of Ukrainian territories, including Crimea and potentially other regions in eastern and southern Ukraine.
  • “Demilitarization” and Limits on Ukraine’s Military: Russia has called for the “demilitarization” of Ukraine, which could involve limitations on the size and capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces.
  • Protection of Russian Language Speakers: Russia has often stated its aim to protect the rights and interests of Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine. This could translate into demands for specific legal or constitutional guarantees.

Some of these demands are clearly extremely difficult to satisfy. What NATO and Ukraine needs is a way to satisfy these demands and induce some flexibility on some of their key points.

What choice does NATO have without a full scale occupation of Ukraine and a risk of nuclear war? It simply doesn’t. Russia will continue to fight indefinitely as they have stated and continue to do until their interests are satisfied and aims are accomplished. Anything else is a delusion. I grew up in Lugansk, which is 12 hours by car from Moscow. Russia simply will not accept NATO within 12 hours of Moscow, it just isn’t going to happen. 11 years of war in Ukraine have changed Ukraine’s position only for the worse — meanwhile NATO simply keeps supplying more ammunition and munitions and equipment to Ukraine. Ukrainian civilians keep dying and nothing is changing. NATO is unable to stop this conflict without provoking a deeper war and risking a nuclear exchange. NATO’s sole mission was to prevent nuclear war with Moscow and it is resoundingly failing that mission by using Ukrainian civilians as meat for a meat grinder on the Donbas frontline of contact.

Every negotiation has failed since the beginning of the conflict because the west simply doesn’t understand what Russia is looking for — or worse yet is unwilling to provide it. Security guarantees and economic stability are vital. Security guarantees do not come from NATO being on Russia’s doorstep. They do not come from Ukraine joining NATO. Economic stability from a parasitic western economy also does not come from the European Union or the Eurozone. The west has spent decades plundering and strangling Russia as an indefinite strategy. They have entirely forgotten that it was Russia that won World War 2 alongside them. Perhaps Stalin should have never made a deal with Hitler and divided Poland, but that was a very long time ago and Russia paid a very heavy price for that miscalculation. However, so did everyone else in Europe that underestimated Hitler’s ambition and blood-thirst.

Moving past the mistakes of our forbearers, how long was Russia supposed to stand idly by as their culture and economy was ransacked? As their territory was encroached upon? The United States has finally come to understand that this is an absurdist strategy when Donald Trump has come to power. We are risking a nuclear exchange with a nuclear power for zero reason aside from greed. Russia has a population of 150 million people and Europe is pearl clutching some perceived and fictionalized blood thirsty Russian agenda — a Europe with a population of over a billion people. The prospect is absurdity at its finest. Meanwhile, at the same time, the far right is once again rising in Europe.

What is left to do is for rationality to prevail. A strong and neutral Ukraine at the center of the Eurasian Economic Zone can be leveraged as a buffer between Russian interests and NATO expansionism and aggression. Furthermore, it is the greatest bargaining chip the west has right now to permanently resolve this needless conflict peacefully without a single further bullet or artillery round fired and not another bomb dropped. Talk about dropping the ball for the so-called civilized world. It’s outright horrifying. We need to offer Russia this security guarantee, with the right diplomacy and people in the room, they may be willing to return the seized and contested Ukrainian territory but it will never happen otherwise. It’s just not feasible as Russia simply has no incentive to do this and have it fall immediately into European and NATO control. It can only come through a neutral Ukraine.

The economic implication is noteworthy as 100’s of billions of dollars can move freely through this economic corridor annually between Europe, Russia, China, the U.S. and through this new Eurasian economic zone and onwards to our international partners as well.

To a future that looks more like this: